13 HOURS: THE SECRET SOLDIERS OF BENGHAZI is not a historic flop on the level of INCHON or BATTLEFIELD EARTH, but it is a box office disappointment, and unless things turn around (as they’ve been known to; see DIE HARD), it might not even make back its investment.

Some people are saying that people just don’t want to see war movies.

To which I say, AMERICAN SNIPER.

Whatever you think of that movie, and I will understand you saying you hated it, people went to see it in mobs.

A couple of years earlier, THE HURT LOCKER won Best Picture.

So people do see military films.

They certainly see action movies, and movies with lots of explosions, and movies with competent men who know how to shoot.

So what does it say to you that this slam-bang movie made by a guy whose (frequently but not always awful) films tend to be hits, was largely ignored at the box office?

Well, for one, it’s a January release, and January movies do tend to be bombs unless they began their nationwide roll-out in December; people are still catching up with the big movies of the prior year. January is traditionally the dumping ground of movies that the studios expect to lose money.

So that’s a historical reason. It’s always a good idea to avoid movies officially released in January.

Maybe that’s the whole reason.

But aside from that.

What does it say to you that a hit-maker like Michael Bay could not make a Benghazi film a blockbuster, and indeed couldn’t attract audiences except those whose *desired* movie-going experience was to sit there being told something they already believed so they could feed their angry resentment, even with Fox happily treating the release of the movie as a prompt for serious discussion? That it largely only went to the pre-sold, people who thought that seeing it would be supporting Donald Trump?

Can it be that people are tired of hearing the word “Benghazi?”

That they’ve reached the point where they resent it?

That they can watch the trailer and know exactly the movie-going experience they’re gonna get, and *don’t want it*?

What does that say to you?

At packed early screenings of this movie, angry men were quoted as saying that they would kill Hillary Clinton if they could. Well, that’s upsetting, especially since Hillary Clinton is not even mentioned in the movie. These types went to exercise their Hillary-hate by proxy, to scratch the itch that consumes their toxic little hearts.

But the movie…is not being supported to the degree it needs, to cross the finish line. In a few months many more people will see it on home video of one sort or another…but it doesn’t look like it will be one of those movies fated to enter the zeitgeist, and though home video has performed that miracle for flops before (see THE SHAWSHANK REDEMPTION), my prediction is that it’s not in the cards. Not for this movie. Not even with name recognition, the imprint of Michael Bay, and the fervent recommendations of the Republican field, including a couple like Trump who have held rallies connected to special screenings. This will be a historical footnote, and a very minor one. An attempt to create an explosion that resulted in an almost inaudible pop.

This movie will not be AMERICAN SNIPER. It will not be PASSION OF THE CHRIST. It will not be a movie that changes the discussion. It will be just a dopey movie that came and went. Even with attendance sold as a patriotic act, it will go.

What does that say to you?

I remember the tempest in a teapot when THE RIGHT STUFF was released. John Glenn was one of the heroes, and the real man happened to be running for President. Some of his opponents cried foul, claiming the movie an unfair advantage. And you can see why. The movie, a good one, was not cynical about Glenn. It was structured to make you love Glenn, at least the astronaut Glenn. But it was no hit. It did not usher Senator Glenn into the Presidency, as some predicted. It ended up being just a movie.

What does that say to you?

Can it be that 13 HOURS is not functioning as a movie, but as a canary?

Folks, there was one way I knew PASSION OF THE CHRIST was a phenomenon: because I go to the movies fairly frequently, and for a couple of months, whenever I did, I saw church groups arriving in buses, and overheard from them the kind of comments made by people who hadn’t been in a movie theatre for years. Comments like, Wow, I didn’t know movie theatres had videogame rooms. Or like references to the posters they saw of third sequels to major hits, “I didn’t even know there was a first one.” Or, “FOUR DOLLARS FOR A POPCORN?!?” Folks who didn’t know what the theatre experience was.

The success of that movie was *organized*, and it involved people for whom going to a movie at all was something other people did. Old ladies went in caravans to see Jesus get flayed for two hours, because their churches ordered them to. But this is what makes a phenomenon. And this movie, seeking a pre-built audience in the demographic of folks who thought the shouted word “Benghazi!” was a coherent political argument, was supposed to have that kind of success. Because that is certainly a LOUD demographic.

But that demographic has not showed up in the expected numbers.

Not a movie, but a canary?

Can that be possible?

Tags: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, American Sniper, Assholes, Bad Movies, Battlefield Earth, Clint Eastwood, Die Hard, Inchon, John Glenn, Michael Bay, Movies, Passion of the Christ, Politics, The Hurt Locker, The Right Stuff | Category Movies, Politics